The Twilight of the French Left
Working-class and lower-middle-class voters who once represented the linchpin of the French Left’s electoral base are radicalizing in…
Working-class and lower-middle-class voters who once represented the linchpin of the French Left’s electoral base are radicalizing in favor of right-wing populist alternatives.
As you may expect, in a pandemic-ridden world, France is not doing well. Its GDP dropped at the fastest rate in history while entire segments of the French population experienced a sharp decline in their standards of living; highlighting the painful economic state that the COVID-19 outbreak left France in.
Yet, despite all the simmering signs of a dysfunctional capitalist system, the French Left has virtually no chance to reach the second round of the 2022 presidential elections. Recent polls showed that France is heading for a rematch of the 2017 presidential elections that opposed incumbent president Emmanuel Macron to Marine Le Pen, the leader of the right-wing populist Rassemblement National (RN/National Rally).
Why is that?
First of all, the progressive political family is deeply divided between the democratic socialist, left-wing populist party La France Insoumise (LFI), the Communist Party, the Green Party, and the center-left Socialist Party. Although, the different forces have started talking to each other again, due to personal egos and sharp ideological differences, there is no guarantee that they will manage to unite behind one candidate.
The Left has lost the Working-Class
Second, strongly working-class parliamentary seats are no longer progressive heartlands as left-leaning parties’ core support has shifted to big cities. Support for progressive ideas has been growing for years in large urban areas but falling in the most working-class seats. Left-wing parties’ hold on urban France means that they have come to represent the winners of the “knowledge economy”— the largest, richest metropolitan areas. As such, the French Left is struggling to broaden its white urban middle-class electoral base — unable to reach out to different working-class communities — and create opportunities for them to campaign on the issues that matter to them.
Over the last three decades, the French left has gradually adopted the views of progressive middle and upper-class urban voters on multiculturalism, migration, and environmental issues. In the same timespan however, the working-class’ has suffered from unemployment and declining standards of living. The lack of social status is especially felt among working-class voters living in small-town France which is experiencing a relentless and painful decline.
As jobs disappeared, rural voters have watched with dismay the painful retreat of the welfare state from rural France: maternity clinics, post offices, local stores have disappeared from the centers of small towns. Consequently, feeling despised and ignored by Parisian elites, people living in small towns and rural areas have come to believe that their entire economic future has been sold down the river in favor of cheap foreign labor and goods.
In late 2018, the price of petrol was the spark that lit the fire of the yellow vests, known in France as the Gilets Jaunes. Studies have shown that the great majority of protesters were hailing from declining small and medium-sized towns. Yellow Vest protestors were over-represented along the territories belonging to what is commonly known in France as “the diagonal void,” regions that have suffered the most from deindustrialization and rural exodus.
Over time, communities affected by economic distress and social marginalization have merged their economic grievances with national pride. The rise of right-wing populism is driven by perceived “cultural threats” to national identity and in the context of 21st century France, the term cultural threat means one thing: Islam.
Radical Islam: the Kryptonite of the Left
France’s Islamic communities make up roughly 10% of the population and are projected to represent 20% by 2050. Europe is battling with the spread of religious radicalism among Muslim communities. This conservative turn is powered by growing numbers of highly effective and nimble conservative groups and leaders that leverage on the star power of charismatic leaders to feed a conservative ideology to Muslim millennials and zoomers. If the Islamization of France may be a far-fetched reality, the clash between French secularism and Islamic conservatism remains the biggest challenge to a liberal France.
The relationship between France and its Islamic communities has always been strained. Since 2015, France has been rocked by a series of Islamic terror attacks. The latest victim, Samuel Paty — a history teacher — was decapitated by an 18 years old Chechen refugee outside his secondary school in a Paris suburb after he showed a caricature of the prophet Muhammad to his pupils. Mr. Paty’s death was met with horror across France and right-wing media and political figures have been quick to accuse the French Left to downplay the threat represented by radical Islam.
It is true that many French liberals have avoided criticizing Islam and Muslims for fear of being labelled “Islamophobic.” Additionally, under the influence of critical race theory, left-wing parties have internalized American-inspired multicultural values that clash with France’s historical assimilationist approach. Unfortunately for the Left, France has been irrevocably changed by Islamic terrorism and in 2020, being perceived as Islamic-friendly is political suicide.
Additionally, many ethnic French people are becoming increasingly frustrated at what they perceived to be a surge of violent crimes committed by African immigrants and their children. A subject of considerable political debate in France in recent years has been whether the presence of immigrants, their descendants, and foreigners from non-EU countries leads to higher crime rates. Marine Le Pen and her supporters proclaim that immigrants are the main source of crimes in France and whether that assertion is true or not, millions of French citizens agree with her. At the same time, a majority of French citizens perceive left-wing parties to be weak on defence and security, unpatriotic, and incapable of running the country.
Class Struggle is the Future
To win again the French Left will need to reconnect with working-class and middle-class voters.
First of all, the Left needs to have a serious debate about immigration, multiculturalism, and Islam. Political correctness is an essence an attack on free speech, free thought and consequently freedom itself. As such, it should be acceptable for leftists to be critical of migration, communitarianism, and religions other than Christianity.
Second, the French Left should leave identity politics behind and go back to its roots: class struggle. Identity politics itself can do nothing to increase the number of secure jobs, access to quality education and decent health-care for all. The ideas underlying identity politics are directly the ideas of the ruling class that are refined and supported by the vanguard of middle class men and women, as ruling ideas.
Anti-racism differentiates between whites and blacks, with no distinction between their class character. Similarly, in feminism, the fundamental division in society is between men and women. Blind adherence to identity politics can lead to disturbing conclusions. For example, within that framework, white blue-collar workers living in West Virginia are considered to be “more” privileged than the daughter of black billionaire Michael Jordan.
On the opposite, in socialism, the fundamental division in society is between an exploiting class and an exploited class. As such, the socialist lexicon is better suited to appeal to working-class and middle-class voters who have been severely hit by the economic fallout brought about by the pandemic.
Finally, left-wing parties should provide a large-scale economic program for France’s suffering small towns and rural areas. For years, the liberal-leaning economists failed to reckon with the stark economic disparities between parts of the country. France is in dire need of a “Rural New Deal” with the objective to address regional inequalities and the urban/rural divide.
France is currently ripe for an anti-establishment takeover. Trust in local politicians, media, and business leaders is desperately low. In other words, most people don’t trust the elites who have gained a stranglehold on political and economic power in this country and used it to marginalize the most vulnerable. As such, whichever political force can most effectively channel the anti-establishment energy pervading many segments of French society will win elections. For now, it won’t be the Left.